From the category archives:

Business

Biscuit marketing

by nick on April 30, 2009

biscuitComplacent and lazy marketers know people like to follow the crowd. There’s safety in numbers, right?

They play this card as often as possible with their marketing messages. The company mindset can be, ‘Why do we need to do any better when product X sells just fine?’ It strikes me that the banking and motor industries have entrenched their businesses in this attitude.

The brave ones break new ground and create a tribe.

At the back of every great fortune lies a great crime (Honoré de Balzac).

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Finding a CEO for polar opposites

by nick on April 24, 2009

chris_dewolfeTwo huge media companies are looking for new top dogs this week. MySpace chief executive and co-founder, Chris DeWolfe is on his way, along with ITV’s Executive Chairman, Michael Grade.

What’s remarkable is that the same candidate could be ideal for both positions, yet the view from both chairs couldn’t be more polarised.

MySpace is one of the great brands of the new millennium and the next CEO has a massive opportunity if he/she thinks big enough (could you put Facebook on the ropes?). ITV is a beacon of the past with largely outdated revenue models and the reality that its scale is shrinking.

Both are ‘big ask’ tenures as they’ll surely oversee the most challenging make-or-break, eat-or-be-eaten stuff either firm has encountered. Very exciting times.

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A Virgin to slay the Dragons

by nick on April 13, 2009

richardbransonRichard Branson recently launched PitchTV to help entrepreneurs find investors – a mini Dragons’ Den if you like.

The hopeful amongst you can upload a two minute video which gets voted online and the favourites will be broadcast on Virgin planes. Getting your ideas seen by business travellers would be a huge coo (for exposure if nothing else!).

The barrier to this is simply time. Don’t be thinking about spending your seed money on pucka cameras and an editing team. You can do the lot with a Flip and stopwatch for under £100 (honestly). Here’s the third example to be put online. You could’ve created something of equal quality last weekend if you’d wanted to.

For the audience, there’s the added benefit of not having to watch the Simon Cowell wannabies lash into the dreams of everyday passionate people in ‘the Den’. Oh yeah, there’s also an annual special prize from Sir B himself, and my bet is that’ll be some first-rate business support not recycled Christmas socks!

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N.E.E.T. pensions

by nick on March 26, 2009

unemployedThe poor economy is equally affecting both extremes of the working age spectrum.

One in three 16 to 17-year-olds are unemployed in the UK (BBC Today snippet). Ten percent of 16 to 18-year-olds are not in education, employment or training (N.E.E.T.). Considering that’s a Government stat I think it’s fair to say it’ll be on the low side of real.

Generation Y (born 1980 – 1999) look to be at the forefront of the redundancy queue. They are felt to have less experience – therefore less value – and have less service under their belts making the cost and effort of redundancy less.

At the opposite end of the working generations is my father who retires this month. He couldn’t afford to fully retire so was planning to scale right back, working a day or two a week at his current employer. But now he’s had the double whammy of his industry shrinking and his pension paying 40% less than was forecast only six month’s ago. After working diligently for 47 years he has less income than planned and even less of a chance of making up the short fall.

You can see these chains of pain in every town across Europe. Sure, Japan’s shrinking GDP and America’s supersonic unemployment are worrisome, but 2009 will be the year this worldwide fiasco really hits home for the majority of us (if it hasn’t already).
Photo credit: Daquella Manera

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Google buys Twitter

by nick on March 5, 2009

twitter_logoWell, that’s my prediction. They’ll stop burning dollars acquiring paper mills and fork out $750+ million for Twitter.

Twitter is the most popular and certainly the most talked about social media tool of the moment, yet there’s no clear indication on how they’ll monetise the whole shebang. They raised another $35 million in venture capital last month but to what end?

If you concede that Google want to know far more about you and your digital habits along with the world at large, this source would make an obvious acquisition. The speed at which trends and news appear on Twitter is unmatched elsewhere on the web. Google could leverage this into their algorithm and gain much more real-time searching (certainly opposed to Google News).

Of course, we’re not privy to the magic that’s being created right now in Mountain View where Google’s rocket scientists wave their wands over the web with reckless talent. Have they got a Twitter-killer waiting in the wings? Personally I doubt it. And if they have, will it be another Google Video which was always the poor cousin to YouTube – remember Google later bought YouTube purely to get that online video foothold?

They’re into harvesting strategies and don’t need to monetise everything immediately. Again, YouTube teaches us that. So the lack of income at Twitter won’t be such a problem; the data is the treasure worth the capital outlay. Although, Twitter wont keep its monopoly forever – when you show the market what’s it’s capable of, it rarely stands and applauds for long. Immitation is immenant.

Then again, others might get to the buy-out first. Facebook is reported to have offered $500 million and Carol Bartz could do with creating some buzz about Yahoo other than dismal reports of staff exoduses. Either of these firms would be salivating at the thought of gaining those 6 million Twitterers and all that live data.

What do you reckon? Do you think Google will crush Twitter, buy Twitter or just look at it like a play-thing in the corner?

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Here comes Seth

by nick on February 15, 2009

Seth Godin is giving his only UK talk on Tuesday. Yep, yours truly has booked a day off and got a ticket to the Big Smoke to see my man Seth.

He’s not a ground-breaking intellectual – academia would never cite him like they do Philip Kotler et al (and we wouldn’t read him either). But he’s superb at taking ideas and formatting them into cohesive thoughts that spread via his stories. He is a visionary and he’s dialled into leveraging the web 100%.

He’s most captivating because his ideas are top-notch and he shares absolutely loads of them. This, coupled with his style and honesty, make him unmissable.

My wife thinks I’ll meet him in the corridor. She also reckons I’ll dribble and soil myself at the mere presence of a [my] marketing god. Let’s hope she’s 50% right.

Teaser video of Seth at Google:

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Brown’s banking nightmare

by nick on February 10, 2009

cliff-edgeBonus payments to bankers are far more problematic than the media is allowing. Banning bonuses and capping pay sounds about right for companies that needed tax payers’ cash in order to open their doors. But part-nationalisation was always going to bring about such headaches, and RBS is calling for morphine not paracetamol.

Despite colossal losses, employees within RBS will have smashed targets and proven themselves thoroughly deserving of the rewards offered when negotiating their terms of employment.

Of course, public contempt is such that our knee-jerk reaction is to cease and desist on ALL bonuses. Today’s coerced apologies will do little to reverse that derision. But this would almost certainly breach employment contracts, anger deserving staff and demoralise a non-too-confident team.

I can hear myself saying, “So what? They ruined the business. We own 70% of RBS and if they don’t like it…” Well, we need the banks to drag themselves back from the brink and pay back our investment. We do hope to get our money out remember and like it or not, we’re in bed with these bankers.

Whipping all RBS staff with the same ferocity and capping salaries will lead to a two-tier City: capped, non-bonus work for the Chancellor; and, non-capped, bonus-rewarding. Barclays appear to want to be in the latter group. Which of the two sectors do you think the brightest talents will be attracted to?

Carl Icahn writes, “The real problem is that many corporate managements operate with impunity—with little oversight by, or accountability to, shareholders. Instead of operating as aggressive watchdogs over management and corporate assets, many boards act more like lapdogs.”

Many would vote for re-opening Alcatraz to house Sir Fred and his brethren. The negligence and recklessness of these ‘industry leaders’ and their ilk has brought the world to its knees. The greed of bizarre derivatives and securities filtered through their investment arms like heroin. They’re more deserving of pistol-whipping than a pay packet. These guys should get nada.

But below board and senior management level the bonuses will probably stand, albeit deflated and with more leaning to deferment. And rightly so I think. Staff should be grateful the bank is still solvent and paying salaries, let alone bonuses. Scores of other employers weren’t felt so valuable to the UK that they be given CPR (think Woolies, Adams, JJB et al). Banking has proven itself a special case. I pray it can do something special in return.

Bottom line: the reason this all smells like a rotten carcass is because that’s exactly what we taxpayers bought.
[You noticed how few females have featured in this whole debacle?]

Photo credit: Eladesor

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Au revoir (ish)

by nick on January 18, 2009

My business hero list is short but distinguished. Toward the top – probably at the pinnacle – sit Ron Dennis of McLaren and Steve Jobs of Apple.

These guys have proven themselves entrepreneurs, figureheads, statesmen, leaders and visionaries. Their products embody people’s emotions. Both are bowing out of their current roles: SJ to hopefully improve his health; RD to look after the bigger picture at McLaren Group. SJ is planning to return in June, RD is an always-listening ear to call on.

Game-changers like this pair don’t need my luck but I certainly wish it.

The real leader has no need to lead – he is content to point the way.Henry Miller

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Military lessons

by nick on December 14, 2008

In The Bear and the Dragon, Tom Clancy paints the courageous character of Gennady Iosifovich, a Russian General. Our brave General finds himself the senior man called to defend his country against a warring China, who massively outnumber him. Prior to battle he talks to his aid about soldiers’ universal trio of needs: training, resources and leadership.

Tom Clancy is more than intelligent enough to have created that himself, but I doubt there’s an organisation in the world that could’ve helped him write it any more succinctly. Can you name a workforce – from the factory floor to the football pitch – that doesn’t require training, resources and leadership?

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Jamie could serve the doctor well

by nick on November 28, 2008

Jamie Oliver’s latest push is to bring basic food skills to the masses who have none. He named the CH4 series and it’s subsequent book, Jamie’s Ministry of Food. The first programme showed a family with two kids all eating kebabs out of styrofoam with their fingers.

jamieoliverWith the world and its cat destined to be obese by Christmas you’ve got to admire him. Sure, he’ll make money from the project but there’s definitely a philanthropic side to Mr Oliver. Previous projects, as well as this one, have given him masses of completely avoidable stress and some very vengeful PR.

I recently visited a doctor’s surgery four times in a week with my very unwell daughter. The surgery is a vital hub for the community and employs eight doctors who all have daily queues outside their doors. But the waiting room couldn’t be more sombre. No radio, no TV (perhaps a blessing if Jeremy Kyle et al had been on), but the walls are littered with posters of good intention that appear completely ignored: stop smoking, don’t let your husband beat you, etc. You get the picture.

Well here’s my idea: why doesn’t the local authority follow Jamie’s example (using his name with permission) and have the local college, which is just 1.5 miles away, put on cooking demonstrations? Not fluffy five star stuff, energised five-a-day stuff. The surgery gets a new lease of life; the students get some real consumer contact; the lecturers get a massive reward; the patients get inspired (hopefully) and the area promotes healthy eating without a government press release. Costs could be largely met be sponsorship – maybe the Tesco cook along, or perhaps a pharmacy company?

Sounds like several wins to me. Now, where are those forward-thinking college deans and doctors?

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Detroit scores another own goal

by nick on November 24, 2008

If you and your peers needed $25 billion from the government because your misguided business is going belly up, how would you travel from Detroit to Washington? By private jet of course. Separately. After all, you’re too powerful to share. One congressman asked if they couldn’t have downgraded to first class?

Tom Peters rants about it best, but I think a massive PR opportunity has been missed. Imagine one of them had driven the 520 miles across the US with a small team and a camcorder explaining via short films and blog posts the reasons behind the begging bowl. They could’ve done it in a hybrid or some semi-solar powered prototype as a metaphor for the future of Detroit. He could’ve spoken openly in diners along the way with ordinary folks in Fords. That would’ve given him an opportunity to explain his thinking behind ethanol use rather than alternative energy, union pressures, pension commitments, federal restrictions, global forces, (not) going green… the whole nine yards.

They could’ve gone all web 2.0 about it: Gmapping the route and twittering as they went. The blogosphere would’ve exploded with the news and traditional TV would’ve followed – no press releases, just unadulterated, raw PR. More than a sliver of humble pie would’ve been needed and it would’ve been called for the obvious PR stunt it was, but a single point in the plus column would be better than the abundance of own goals this reckless trio are scoring.
[GM have since tried to block corporate jet tracking by the US Federal Aviation Administration.]

When Congress asked if they’d work for $1 a year, Chrysler’s Nardelli agreed (although he took home $210 million for being fired from Home Depo!). “I don’t have a position on that today,” said GM’s Wagoner (2007 earnings: $15.7 million). Ford’s Mulally (2007 earnings: $21.7m) said, “I think I’m okay where I am.” You almost want John Wayne’s ghost to walk over in a cowboy outfit and horsewhip him.

Irresponsible, selfish, unethical egomaniacs.

Stuff ‘em – corporate America needs to realise capitalism means being accountable for one’s own destiny. Mulally et al will believe themselves even more infallible. Yes, the fallout will be enormous and terrible but (semi) nationalising every conglomerate simply isn’t viable. What’s next, Hollywood? The NFL? The market must level itself to a greater extent or it ceases to be a free market.

Bail ‘em – if these three go bust the financial tsunami will be felt for decades (did anyone say depression?). Their supply chain is enormous and the ramifications for the world are literally immeasurable. They are simply too big and too important to fail simultaneously. A nuclear disaster may well have less impact on the West than this fiscal Armageddon.

It’s the very definition of an impossible situation.

UPDATE: excellent piece here by Sir Evelyn de Rothschild

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Wikipedia + Google = better search?

by nick on November 23, 2008

Jason Calacanis shares a number of attributes, along with the initials, of Jeremy Clarkson. Both are tall, gregarious and outrageously outspoken in their quest for PR. (According to .net magazine, Calacanis called SEO ‘bullshit’ and a ‘wasted industry’ while speaking at a search engine conference, and said anyone from PayPerPost should kill themselves.)

But, unlike Clarkson, Calacanis is more than a one-dimensional critic: he’s a creator. This is the chap who started Silicon Alley Reporter and brought us Weblogs, Inc before selling up to AOL. His latest project is the human powered search engine, Mahalo.
mahalo
Paid humans review the Wikipedia pages Mahalo includes (opposed to volunteers) and humans also scrutinise the Google results to reduce the risk of gaming. The two results are mashed up to provide what Calacanis reckons is the ultimate in search accuracy with a massive dose of trust thrown in.

It’s just out of beta having reached 100,000 search terms and attracted 4.6 million uniques in August – no alternative search engine has broken the 1 million barrier. But like so many ‘new’ web projects (think Twitter) they aren’t even trying to make money yet as Calacanis’ profile has secured the project five years of funding.

It’s about building a useful service that people want, but Calacanis is also very ambitious. He wants to create the next Wikipedia or Yahoo and carve a 10% market share out of search. It’s early days but keep an eye on this guy; he’s far more that just a mouth.

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Your corporate iPhone

by nick on November 19, 2008

Apple’s frustrations have been well documented over the summer: the MobileMe fiasco, the debacle over the iPhone launch/sign up, patches for freezing MacBook Airs and several other dents in the pristine name of all things Jobs.

But they really do come up with some gems. Charlie Anzman points us to Apple’s Corporate Gifting and Rewards Program.

This will make your company’s pen, mouse mat and umbrella trio look like impulse buys at Aldi. Yes it’s your logo on a lovely gift (who wouldn’t like an iPhone as a thank you) but when you can add your ‘training talks, product overviews, CEO speeches, promotional videos, or other custom content’ it becomes an even more powerful and relevant message.

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Buck the trend

by nick on November 15, 2008

I’m sure you’ve heard the world economy is broken. With so much reporting of the negative it’s easy to obliterate the positives. Here’s a couple of diamonds in the rough for you though:

- Apple finished their fiscal fourth quarter (to 27th Sept) with sales up 35%. All the numbers have gone north which is amazing for a hardware business. 3G iPhone sales are astonishing at 6.9 million for the quarter (more than the first gen did in a year!).

There’s an even bigger cherry on the Jobs’ cake with $24.5 billion in the bank (up nearly 60% on last year) and no debt. When staring at a more-than-possible downturn their rivals must feel it’s an unfair advantage.

- The world’s largest retail park opened this month in, of course, Dubai. With almost 600 retailers trading, the ‘Mall’ is operating at just half capacity.

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Has a whale landed on you?

by nick on October 31, 2008

There’s a lovely corner shop in my village. It’s completely typical, run by an Indian family where nana holds the night shift ‘till 10pm. It’s an extremely well run family business where the profits have gone back into structural renovations. You couldn’t buy a pack of mints from a more spotless mini supermarket.

But Tesco has spotted the success and is planting an Express at the other end of the village to open before Christmas. Tesco’s area and local managers will have set a pact to obliterate the incumbent. Our local staple for over a decade is now an impala in front of the cheetah.

Suddenly papers and magazines are being sold at this corner shop (much to the dismay of the paper shop, whose days really are numbered now), the already immaculate store is getting a winter revamp, and the long opening hours just got longer. They’re fighting and bravo to them.

What would you do if a whale – a metaphorical Orca in Tesco’s case – opened close enough to your business (on or offline) for you to smell their breath? Remember, if it all comes down to price, the whale wins.

Better yet, why aren’t we all treating each week as if it was our last whale-free week and fighting that hard? Why isn’t that par for effort?

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Recession-proof is work of Hollywood

by nick on October 8, 2008

Heard anyone talking (bragging?) lately that her industry is recession resistant? It seems the DVD business is just that according to DreamWorks CEO, Jeffrey Katzenberg. Chocolate and cycling are seeing the same anecdotal sentiment as the crunching of credit gets ever louder.

But, just like the man, no business is an island. It needs a bank to handle transactions (and probably allow an overdraft); solicitors and accountants; suppliers who need their own supply chain; manufacturers who perhaps use global resources. And interest rates, inflation and oil prices will affect it and its staff universally.

It strikes me that regardless of your product, no company could possibly be wholly ‘resistant’ to the current trouble. Surely it becomes a case of how you handle the external pressures.

Yet again, Tesco appear to be teaching the high street that lesson.

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Fake becomes fashionable

by nick on October 3, 2008

The Royal Mint said last week that one in 50 pound coins you come across could be fake. This really hit home that bogus goods are seeping into everyday consumerism.

Earlier this year Channel 4’s Dispatches programme reported that companies are losing a fortune in revenue and brand credibility to counterfeiters. Much of the goods were imported, getting past the under-resourced customs agents. Some cases can be potentially lethal with the increased exposure of counterfeit drugs (I’m not thinking Viagra).

An Adidas fraud officer was filmed as he discovered luminous Chelsea football jerseys in an Asian street market two weeks before the shirt had been launched in London. Fake chicken eggs (yes, with yellow yokes) are apparently going down a storm in certain parts of China too poor to rear chickens – they actually manufactured one for the cameras. Product from Colgate to Channel was shown to be within the fraudsters’ varied capability.

The crux of the Dispatches’ argument was that if you employ developing countries to manufacture for you, then you can expect those countries to be imitating you as well. Especially if you leave and set up [a cheaper] shop elsewhere – highly likely as cost was the motivator that took you there in the first place.

Imitation is said to be the largest form of flattery but I doubt the Mint or Versace et al would agree here.

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Reasons to read

by nick on September 26, 2008

The main man, Tom Peters points us to the FT for a reading assignment with “wall-to-wall great material about the financial markets madness”.

All very well and apt, but get over to my even-more-main-man, Seth Godin for a quick fix of inspiration. As ever he’s got an upbeat take on things for the entrepreneur.
[Don’t you think that if Obama had put Godin on the ticket as VP, McCain wouldn’t stand a chance? Or should it be Godin for President?]

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What price for a bull market

by nick on September 22, 2008

Doom and gloom are no longer a ‘possible’. It is a fact, displayed all too vividly with the tectonic shift in confidence toward the financial sector recently. It comes to something when a £12bn emergency takeover of HBOS by LloydsTSB (and a subsequent 30% market share) is regarded positively. Well, rather like a slap to the face, as opposed to kick in the nether regions, it was found less negative than the alternative.

Of course the massive job losses are devastating. And as Paxman said on last Monday’s Newsnight, “It’s hard to call yourself a master of the universe when you’re leaving the office clutching a cardboard box full of your possessions.” But there’s a diamond in the rough for some who’ve lost their livelihood. It seems IT startups on America’s East Coast and in Britain are actively targeting those with advanced degrees in economics or maths and experience in coding algorithms.

Meanwhile America’s pay-for-failures in corporate board rooms continues unchecked. It seems ‘crunch’ doesn’t translate to the penthouse suites of these ‘top performers’. The CEO of asphyxiating insurance giant AIG, Robert Willumstad, is eligible for a laughable golden parachute of $8 million, according to estimates in the NY Times. However, this is nothing short of insulting compared to the recent departure from Merrill Lynch of CEO Stan O’Neal – he left with a pay package of $160 million!

If that doesn’t say ‘Keep up the good work, chaps’ what the hell is it supposed to say instead? A public flogging for irresponsibility and negligence would get my vote. Moral hazard indeed.

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Start at the beginning

by nick on September 13, 2008

Collective wisdom has it that SMEs don’t plan. If they do it’s likely to be more back-of-the-napkin stuff; or perhaps it’s all kept in the grey matter. Even then it’s unlikely that the boss will actually have told anybody and ‘created a vision’.

But large companies often don’t either. Some have large teams dedicated to planning and you’ve got to ask how accurate they’ve been at forecasting their future (think RBS losses for example). Studying for my MBA in 2004 we looked at the over-50s business, Saga, whose pre-tax profits where £48 million at the time. I was certainly surprised that they claimed not to possess a ten, five, three or even a one year plan.

Although a 15,000-word document may have not existed, a vision for their future and a strong company ethos certainly did. Backed by private equity firm Charterhouse, a MBO buyout from the founding de Haan family valued at £1.35 billion went through soon afterward.

Of course, there’s a contradiction to this. It would be easy for start-ups to fall into planning paralysis, stuck in the drawing of a plan and never actually launching into work. Some banks – even seed investors – may initiate the problem and there will be plenty of ‘experts’ who’ll ask for the Business Plan in a low and officious voice. Something is needed then, but what?

As ever, [His Highness] Seth Godin says it more succinctly than anyone:

…do your best to pick a direction (hopefully an unusual one, hopefully one you have resources to complete, hopefully one you can do authentically and hopefully one you enjoy) and then do it. Loudly. With patience and passion. (Loud doesn’t mean boorish. Loud means proud and joyful and with confidence.)
No flitting, no waiting for proof. Just consistent, overwhelming performance in pursuit of a vision you believe in. That’s far more important than which direction you chose in the first place…

Heading off aimlessly on your own (even with your 800 employees) is like building a skyscraper without the architect’s drawings – destined to fail. Pick that direction and tell your stakeholders, every one of them. Tune your message as clear as words allow. Repeat your ‘clear’ message often. Tell them again in a month, and again in another. Clear and often. And so on.

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Free the Airwaves with WiFi 2.0

by nick on September 9, 2008

Think back to your old TV and of the static between TV channels. Well, three-quarters of those radio airwaves, or ‘white space’ spectrum, are completely unused. With the US switching off the analogue TV signal in Feb 2009 Google wants to blow open that wireless spectrum, effectively for a new and more powerful generation of WiFi. Other A-list backers with a dollar or two to spend with lobbyists include Intel, Microsoft and Motorola.

It would be free to air (and unlicensed), like WiFi is now. Needless to say TV execs and wireless services providers are hell-bent on stopping the FCC from ruling in favour of such a free-spirited act.

Take 90 seconds for the pros:

The cons:
- Interference. That’s certainly what some cell phone companies argue.
- So far, the devices that supposedly work over white spaces keep failing [US] government tests.

This is a US only movement but I can’t help but cheer them on in the hope that a successful American model gets put into play in Europe. Unfortunately the FCC vote may well be delayed further than next month.

If you believe in the cause you can sign the petition here.

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Browser battle is beefed up. BIG TIME

by nick on September 5, 2008

Michael Arrington says Google launching their Chrome web browser is yet further indication that our favourite search engine is going after Microsoft’s lunch.

If Mr A is right (I wouldn’t ever bet against he with the knowledge) in predicting Google’s strategy then it’s more than ironic that Microsoft themselves had a similar browser project called Chrome! Scoble says Google must have a sense of humour. I’m not sure they’re the ones who need it in order to laugh – Microsoft must be livid. How hardball can you get? Execs all over Redmond must be dusting off their copies of The Art of War.

But Microsoft have at least entered a fighter into this boxing tournament with their latest version of Internet Explorer, IE8.

Reality check: that’s a gross exaggeration. It’s worth remembering that IE has a 73% market share according to Net Applications. Three quarters of users touch websites via Microsoft! Then again, no one believes ‘the cloud’ won’t revolutionise the way operating systems are used/needed/bought. That means ousting not just IE but Microsoft from newly built machines. (And I’ll never forget the Netscape browser had a 90% market share in the 1990s, proving total implosion is always possible.)

Mozilla’s Firefox remains the popular outsider – certainly until Chrome is available for the Mac – with 19% of the market. Its got loads of plug ins that tech users love, is the de facto browser for the discerning user and has just released a new version. Apple’s Safari has a respectable 6%.

Most early adopters seem to be giving Chrome the thumbs up, but can the Google brand pull it off? Will they just be seen as the new Microsoft? Firefox is the poor cousin everyone loves to love. Google don’t have the cards to play it in quite the same way.

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Expect the unexpected

by nick on August 30, 2008

No Team GB Olympic organiser or coach could’ve really expected we’d finish fourth. Publicly, they refused to be drawn on targets and predictions (very wise) but privately they must’ve sat on the fence with quiet confidence and, no doubt, more than a modicum of fear. Yet, Team GB shattered all expectations and it’s praise indeed to all involved; from Chris Hoy all the way back to John Major (for instigating the lottery). An elite winner with big ambitions has replaced the plucky underdog and polite also-ran that was the United Kingdom. But can British business align itself with sport?

Well, I heard an ex-government economist on the radio last weekend who admitted that official figures used by the Bank’s MPC (and the media of course) are constantly adjusted with time. They can move. A lot.

What was a 2-point drop in growth for March 2006, with hindsight and more data, may actually prove to have only been a quarter point. A one point positive may have been just the opposite. So the data we’re all hearing about now may be completely incorrect.

Ultimately it’s no surprise that forecasts can be, and often are, incorrect. There’s hope then that the current slow-down won’t amount to the economic Armageddon we’re all consuming in the media? It’s fingers and toes crossed that the predictions are as incorrect for GB’s Treasury as they were for Team GB.

Photos from Olympics.org & Getty on BBC.co.uk

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GCSEs miss the point entirely?

by nick on August 25, 2008

The overall pass rate for this year’s GCSE results was an astounding 98.4%. Instead of celebrating this as faculty brilliance, we’re all berating it as a farce. New Labour’s (now very old) mantra of ‘education, education, education’ needs to be seen as reality, not political theory, and these figures apparently do just that.

It’s very easy to jump on the Daily Mail lets-all-hang-ourselves bandwagon but how long will it be before the top schools abandon this rubber stamp in favour of a more robust measurement of education? Two years? Five? When the stat hits 99%?

But the results also show greater feast and famine than ever before. Nearly 2 million children are leaving school this year without a GCSE above grade D. Speaking in the Sunday Times, Tony Little, headmaster at Eton College, said GCSEs were now like a ‘factory process’ that were tailored towards success in school league tables.

Anyone believe that current school leavers with GCSEs are better prepared than their predecessors?

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