There’s no question that many supply chains are shrinking as manufacturers can become retailers, and retailers can increasingly become manufacturers.

Plenty of retail sectors are feeling these waves in their ponds. It strikes me that cross-pollinating, and horizontal and vertical integration sound wonderfully simple growth strategies on paper, but in reality they involve emotion, history and entrenchment.

The established practices and incumbents are going to feel pain. It’s going to cause conflict as the status quo flexes. These can have an impact on your business and industry for years to come.

Distributors, the traditional middlemen who import brands and then sell from within their geographies, are extending arms to either side of the isle. In a case of striking first, they find themselves fearful that the brands they’ve nurtured through adolescence might well cut them out of the loop and run a B2C direct model, so they look to counter that risk and start their own product or run rebadged white label stuff.

As such, the simplicity of integration is putting a dampener on the overused business term of ‘partnership.’

Take the Apple-Samsung example. Samsung are a manufacturer, making components for many tech brands we love, as well as selling their own kit B2C. Apple is suing them (constantly it seems) for patent infringement of both design and UX.

While they’re slugging things out in court for some very big decisions, Apple are investing in Samsung’s chip-making plant in Texas.

These ‘partners’ and many others in the tech world will be friendly suing one another for decades.

Image credit here.

Amazon in America is offering $5 off a purchase if the user orders via their mobile app. As of Saturday, if you go to Macy’s or Toys R Us and physically scan an item’s barcode with the Amazon App, Amazon will give you up to $5 off that item if you add it to your (mobile) cart and leave Macy’s empty handed.

This is about as aggressive as business gets: if you walk into a competing retailer, scan the very item they’ve spent money on to put in store, we’ll do you a better deal today. Does pricing get any more predatory? Amazon don’t want to be a major retail player online, they want to be the retail player, period. eBay and Google can play around with physical pop up shops, but not Amazon. They know where their expertise lie: online. And they aren’t shy about getting you there either.

It’s yet another stunning lesson from Bezos of using market-leader advantage to further leverage your position. The banks are claiming “Caveat emptor,” or buyers beware, as a retort to the mis-selling and exploitation critique. I can’t help but think Amazon will be saying, ‘sellers beware,’ in the coming years as they turn retailers’ own guns back on them having mined the data to within an inch of its life.

Evan Davis on the brilliant Bottom Line asked his guests what the business world will look like in 2020. Justin King of Sainsbury’s commented that it’s difficult enough looking at 2013 and 2020 is impossible. Laura Tenison of JoJo Maman Bebe claimed M-commerce would be commonplace, and Michael Birch, co-founder of Bebo said connectivity to the cloud would be the biggest difference.

Such forecasting always reminds me of the BBC’s Tomorrow’s World show where their predictions of robots in every home and self-replenishing fridges proved unrealistic, but here’s my take on the question:

Curators – there’s far too much data content now as people play with media as much as they consume it. Flipboard, Twitter lists and Google+ Circles are starting points but they’re nowhere near what we need to successfully plug in this fire hose. Some uber-smart MIT dropout will leap this forward soon.

Social commerce – some would argue all commerce is social as people often tell friends about their latest purchases; I don’t fully agree. But following trends will be much easier and integrating recommendations, likes and opinions of friends and peers will influence decisions like never before.

One click buying – as you read about an item in a social network or an article, a right click and ‘Buy Now’ will apply your normal shopping preferences (vendor preferences, sizing, card and delivery details) without anything like a mundane checkout process.

M-commerce – this is surely the tsunami that won’t be held back. I think conversion on tablets will outclass phones in most categories but phones will be great for repetitive purchases (e.g. simply scanning at the tube station), micropayments and voucher delivery.

Phones – data married with location is a winning formula. Searching will provide different results based on your geography. “Cross-channel retail,” will be commonplace as customers in store actually research online via their smartphones. Shopping searches will point you to the local retailer who told Google they have it in stock, not the guy around the corner who is simply listing the catalogue. Your phone’s camera will be able to populate the search, rather than the keyboard (upload a photo of a mate’s watch rather than type Casio G-shock, Google/eBay/Amazon finds it).

Multichannel – retailers are hungrier than ever for sales and they’ll take them any way they can get them. All and sundry will look to improve their transactional websites to compliment their physical stores. Pureplay retailers will encroach on the high street and the smartest will hook paper, web and bricks and motor into a seamless integrated purchasing system (tri-tail, even). Argos and Ikea probably lead this fight in 2011.

Marketplace – this will be the buzzword as the bigger sites aim to carve ever larger slices of retailing web. Amazon don’t just want to sell to you, they’re happy for you to list items on their site and take a percentage as you sell them to me. Why? Proximity: the more items they get next to themselves, the better. If we’re all on there selling cheaper than each other, the site wins as it gets more customers. If the site wins, Amazon win through commissions. There’ll be half a dozen big name players that dominate this next year.

Customisation – thanks to my surfing history and click rates, as well as my stated preferences, sites will know what content to serve me. My Times Online homepage will differ from yours. Ditto for Play.com and the like. Amazon do this very well now. Soon, the level of intuition will be mind blowing.

Cloud computing – we’re currently thinking about storage and remote access as data and photos are backed up online. But more than that, you’ll hook up many, many things to the net: cars (for servicing and sharing), houses (to monitor and trade energy supplies), even pets. Your dog or cat will have a chip that pings the web and checks their health, their dietary requirements, how far they’ve walked etc. Think Nike+, meets Crufts, meets Bupa.

Direct retail – supply chains are shortening. Wrangler has just opened its first store in the US. They’re very late to the party as big name brands want to showcase their wares without the middleman and follow the over-used, but absolutely true example of Apple. There’s an obvious knock-on here for small retailers who carry those brands and helped establish the business.

Regardless of the specifics of the cloud, or what car you’ll be driving in ten years, if our technology is going to reach anything like its potential, we need much better wi-fi access. This isn’t Korea and ubiquitous and free are unrealistic in the UK, but better pricing policies, simpler access and more connectivity are surely overdue/the starting points.

The tablet isn’t a new invention but the iPad has created a phenomenally popular category that was a non-starter before Apple invested. A recent study by Google’s Admob services indicates tablet owners generally use them for more than an hour a day, usually at evenings. GQ editor, Dominic West, wrote in July’s magazine, “We’ve been unable to resist the allure of the iPad because we have immediately formed a genuine bond with it. We just like it.” Even the Queen reportedly ordered one via younger family members.

I’m not hugely impressed by the hardware myself, although I do love its portability and the awe-inspiring battery life compared to my heavy MacBook Pro . But what’s simply staggering to see is others (especially non-techies) interacting with it. They’re utterly engrossed as soon as they hold it. That first two-minute fix on an iPad is similar to watching someone holding a newborn family member for the first time: captivating.

It’s a stroke of marketing genius by Apple to include Photo Booth, a small photo editing package that lets users manipulate the camera’s image before taking the picture (usually of themselves). It’s so intuitive my two-year-old son learned how to use it in seconds, having seen his five-year-old sister figure it out for herself! It’s bags of fun for all the family as they look like they’ve entered the crazy mirror thing in the circus.

Today’s Times states that John Lewis’ mobile sales have doubled in the past year and now account for 5 to 7 per cent of online sales (presumably by revenue rather than by volume). Regardless of gimmicks, phones and tablets are set to become the devices consumers use to interact with you online over the next two to five years. The trend is undeniable, less desktop, less laptop, more smartphone and loads more tablet.

Is your site ready for that?

Silicon Valley can get carried away with the Angry Birds’ Series A round of investment and Apple’s iAds, but Denmark are giving us a great example of digital innovation helping the man on the street right now.

From 1^st April the Danes will be able to text a number that will reply to the phone with a code. This code can be written on envelopes to be dispatched around the country. Users will be charged for the text and the value of the stamp.

No more trawling through your bottom draw for a dog-eared stamp. No frantic will-the-post-office-be-open drives around the estate. Just a simple text and scribble onto an envelope. Genius.

It’s yet another convenient incremental innovation that sees ‘phones become an ever-increasing staple of our society’s functionality. The ONS seems wise to this as its spring clean of shopping items that determine inflation now includes smartphones and app downloads. Indicators indeed.

Three isn't a crowd at Google

Two of the world’s top tech companies announced overhauls at the top this week. Sadly, Steve Jobs’ health will see him step aside for an as-yet unannounced successor at Apple (Chief Operating Officer, Tim Cook will stand in at least in the short term). And Eric Schmidt, Google’s CEO, surprised most of us by tweeting, “Day-to-day adult supervision no longer needed! http://goo.gl/zC89p”

Ten years ago Mr Schmidt was brought in to appease Wall Street. The inmates weren’t going to run the asylum; the kids would be looked after by a mature business brain. He’s done an incredible job but of course there are still some who will criticise saying Google is a little slow to react, that their search isn’t as good or as strong as it should be, that they acquire rather than create. But when you’re in this league, they’ll criticise you no matter what. His decade at the helm has been pretty flawless by any standard.

Product trumps business
Just like the footballers that are shuffling around the country this month, tech CEOs need to be product people. It’s easy to say from my chair, but the business side of Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter, Google etc becomes a poor second to the products themselves. Without great products you wont find reach. Without reach you wont have take up. Without take up there is no scale. Without scale there is no money to be had – just look at Delicious’ closure by owners Yahoo!.

I believe product input and knowledge is why Google didn’t look outside for Schmidt’s successor. Just look at the emphasis on product in this excerpt from Schmidt’s blog post on the announcement:

Larry [Page] will now lead product development and technology strategy, his greatest strengths, and starting from April 4 he will take charge of our day-to-day operations as Google’s Chief Executive Officer. In this new role I know he will merge Google’s technology and business vision brilliantly…

Sergey has decided to devote his time and energy to strategic projects, in particular working on new products. His title will be Co-Founder. He’s an innovator and entrepreneur to the core, and this role suits him perfectly.

So we know Larry is definitely a product man. The question is can he change and become more media-friendly under crushing scrutiny, or, is he going to be typically Googlesque and rip up the rules, creating a whole new cult CEO playbook? Plus, what’s the odds on Apple promoting from within for Mr Jobs’ eventual succession?

Your thoughts?

A website isn’t a necessity for every single business in existence but few would argue it’s a massive opportunity.

When business people ask my opinion about website designers or what type of site they should employ, I say 90% should use a blog. This will usually cause a lifted eyebrow or two as the word blog invokes thoughts of lunch diaries and public letters to mummy. The truth is they make a brilliant platform on which to build your digital presence but they do need some technical skill to make them look more like a modern website than a free blog.

But Getting British Business Online is my new recommendation. It’s a free website and a free URL (i.e. website address or name, which doesn’t necessarily have to be your business name) thanks to a joint initiative between BT, Google, e-skills UK and Enterprise UK.

To quote their site “It’s simple:
1.    Choose a website address
2.    Select and customise a template
3.    Publish your website”

Point any new website starters you know here – Christmas is sticking around for a while longer.

Neil Thompson is the MD of Microsoft UK and Ireland and I recently saw him speak about his 18 years in innovation.

He ran through his career in one of the world’s most influential companies; from exaggerating his skills at his job interview to today’s cutting edge.

It was a walk down memory lane for many in the audience as he spoke of launching Windows 3, MS Dos 6 and the original Office suite. Windows 95 was a landmark for them and getting the Rolling Stones to soundtrack the advertising was a game changer, taking the conversation from the PC box to the software inside it. They also sponsored the Sunday Times for a day by taking over all the advertising which, “cost us another gazillion pounds.”

It’s easy to forget the Internet barely existed before Windows 95 and the Internet Explorer browser. We really are at the foot of the mountain as far as the Internet is concerned. At the time, Netscape had the browser to use with over 95% market share. 95% to zero inside, what, five years? There’s a lesson for any monopoly.

He also shared a pretty widely held hypothesis: the future is in the cloud and it’s viewed across multiscreens. MS categorise three groups of hardware sitting beneath the cloud, all sharing data:

1) Phones and consumer electronic devices
2) PCs
3) TVs

“Imagine watching a film at home and pausing it to leave the house. You jump on a train 10 minutes later and press play on your phone and continue right where you left off,” said the man from Microsoft.

There was plenty of fun while the audience played with a Kinect but one of the most powerful lines of the night was saying how MS go all in when they bet on strategy. Neil reminded us that if Windows 95 hadn’t paid off, the company would have imploded. When they bet, they bet big.

Stan Slap’s book, Bury My Heart at Conference Room B: The Unbeatable Impact of Truly Committed Managers (affiliate link) draws on his experience at Microsoft (among other companies). It was half way down my reading wish list but Neil’s passion for his product and his company has pushed it towards the top – I want to know more about the people and the tactics employed over the years.

Hadfield Road in Cardiff is a haven for the car buyer. It’s just a mile long but straddling nearly every inch of it you’ll find over 20 car dealerships. This proximity to your competitors certainly isn’t unique – pub chains all gather together in city centres. So does the sex industry in London’s Soho, and jewellry in New York’s diamond district around 47th Street. All apply the same phenomenon of proximity.

A similar thing is happening with e-book readers. The iPad launched earlier this year and threatened to decimate existing readers like Sony’s Pocket Reader, Barnes & Noble’s Nook, and, most notably, Amazon’s Kindle. But it appears to have done the opposite as sales of Kindle have trebled this year compared to the first half of 2009.

Amazon is now selling more E-books than they do hardbacks! Just think about that [undisclosed] number for a minute. In an interview with USA Today, Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos said, “I predict we will surpass paperback sales sometime in the next nine to twelve months. Sometime after that, we’ll surpass the combination of paperback and hardcover. It stuns me.”

They’re releasing a new Kindle at the end of August that’s smaller, lighter, better and half the cost. I don’t know if it can launch an artillery strike but it’s going to further enliven their product life cycle.

All this should remind us that the next time competitors threaten to join our market or emulate our products, we should wonder if we cant use proximity to grow the whole together, rather than needing to turn into cannibals. It’s another argument for the thoroughly modern co-opertition, not necessarily competition.

Bing, Microsoft’s search engine, is now a year old and it’s been a good one.

They’ve clawed 12.7% of the enormous search market, which is no small feat. And they’ve got what political campaigners crave: momentum. Bing will be powering Yahoo search from this autumn and Yahoo’s got 18.9% of the market. Granted, it’s early days and Google is still undoubtedly the goliath, but there’s plenty of reason to break out the cake.

But what about Twitter? According to its co-founder Biz Stone, Twitter isn’t a social network, “We’re much more like an information network or a source of news.” He’s not kidding as they’re clocking 24 billion search queries a month! Test it yourself here. Look for your company name, your brands, your services, your competitors, your customers – it’s illuminating.

Fast Company have the search big hitters lining up like this:

Google 88 billion searches per mth
Twitter 24 billion searches per mth
Yahoo 9.4 billion searches per mth
Bing 4.1 billion searches per mth

Photo credit: Search Engine Land